When it comes to crypto, investors often talk about putting your money where your mouth is. And it looks like one outspoken critic is prepared to do exactly that – offering a bet of USD 1m that the bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow (S2F) price model will flop in the next half-decade.
The audacious move came from Eric Wall, the Chief Investment Officer of the crypto hedge fund outfit Arcane Assets.
Taking to Twitter (where else?), Wall challenged PlanB, the architect of the S2F model to a USD 1m duel, writing that the offer was “not a joke,” and would be willing to “lock up the money” for the bet with a third party both he and PlanB trust.
As for specifically what he means, Wall wrote,
“I define ‘broken’ = ‘it won’t have reached even 50% of its target range.”
PlanB is yet to respond to the challenge, but it looks like Wall is in the mood for a flutter – and later opened up his offer to all-comers, writing,
“If someone else has the money to lock up, I will take you on instead.”
Sadly for him, though, it appears that there is set to be a lack of takers, with many Twitter-based crypto enthusiasts asking why they would want to risk USD 1m in a five-year year bet when they could instead spend the time and money on potentially more lucrative crypto investments.
And then, of course, there was the pertinent question of how Wall has USD 1m lying around for a bet like this.
For Wall, this was his cue to release the rainbow.
@Cypher437 From following the Rainbow chart for 6 years, obviously https://t.co/BGboz0xgjA
— Eric Wall (@ercwl)
Wall, as previously reported, denounced the “bullshit” surrounding S2F models.
Others expressed skepticism, opining that Wall’s move was essentially a well-thought-out “hedge” on bitcoin with long-term potential.
@ercwl This sounds like a nice hedge for you if you’re long BTC. Well played.
— Dan McArdle (@robustus)
PlanB’s S2F model predictions have forecasted that bitcoin prices could skyrocket in the year ahead, with prices of between USD 100,000 to just under USD 290,000 in store before the end of 2021.
At pixel time (12:5 PM UTC), BTC trades at USD 15,931, dropping from USD 16,125, reached today for the first time since January 2018. The price is still up by almost 2% in a day and 7% in a week. It rallied by 38% in a month and 79% in a year.
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